Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town prediction
FA Cup · · Stadium MK, Milton Keynes
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Milton Keynes Dons a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Swindon Town 14%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Milton Keynes Dons 2.19, Swindon Town 0.93.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Milton Keynes Dons are without W. Dennis, C. Bramall, C. Nelson, B. Wiles.
Swindon Town are without B. Kirkman, K. Majekodunmi, T. Nichols, O. Clarke.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 66% for Milton Keynes Dons, 20% for the draw and 15% for Swindon Town. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 65%, 21% and 14%.
Expected goals: Milton Keynes Dons 2.19, Swindon Town 0.93, 3.11 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Milton Keynes: 8.9 °C, no rain, wind 3 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Milton Keynes Dons win (65%, fair odds 1.53); double chance 1X rises to 86%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram