Dover vs Wealdstone prediction
FA Cup · · Crabble Athletic Ground, River
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Dover a 23% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Wealdstone 53%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Dover 1.30, Wealdstone 2.04.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Dover report no significant absences.
Wealdstone report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 24% for Dover, 22% for the draw and 54% for Wealdstone. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 23%, 23% and 53%.
Expected goals: Dover 1.30, Wealdstone 2.04, 3.34 in total. Over 2.5 at 65%, both teams to score at 64%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Wealdstone win (53%, fair odds 1.87); double chance X2 rises to 77%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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