Luton vs Forest Green prediction
FA Cup · · Kenilworth Road, Luton
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Luton a 74% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Forest Green 10%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Luton 2.62, Forest Green 0.89.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Luton report no significant absences.
Forest Green report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 74% for Luton, 16% for the draw and 11% for Forest Green. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 74%, 17% and 10%.
Expected goals: Luton 2.62, Forest Green 0.89, 3.51 in total. Over 2.5 at 68%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Luton: 9.5 °C, no rain, wind 3 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Luton win (74%, fair odds 1.36); double chance 1X rises to 90%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram