Eastleigh vs Shrewsbury prediction
FA Cup · · Silverlake Stadium, Eastleigh
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Eastleigh a 24% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Shrewsbury 50%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Eastleigh 1.12, Shrewsbury 1.70.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Eastleigh report no significant absences.
Shrewsbury are without Isaac Andrew Fletcher.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 24% for Eastleigh, 25% for the draw and 50% for Shrewsbury. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 24%, 26% and 50%.
Expected goals: Eastleigh 1.12, Shrewsbury 1.70, 2.82 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Shrewsbury win (50%, fair odds 2.01); double chance X2 rises to 76%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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