Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield prediction
FA Cup · · Field Mill, Mansfield
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Mansfield Town a 70% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Macclesfield 11%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Mansfield Town 2.30, Macclesfield 0.81.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Mansfield Town are without A. Oshilaja, R. Oates, L. Thompson.
Macclesfield report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 71% for Mansfield Town, 18% for the draw and 11% for Macclesfield. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 70%, 19% and 11%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Mansfield Town 2.30, Macclesfield 0.81, 3.11 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Mansfield: 9.7 °C, no rain, wind 8 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Mansfield Town win (70%, fair odds 1.43); double chance 1X rises to 89%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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