Accrington ST vs Wycombe prediction
FA Cup · · The Crown Ground, Accrington
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Accrington ST a 29% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Wycombe 44%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Accrington ST 1.29, Wycombe 1.62.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Accrington ST are without J. Woods, C. O'Brien, D. Tutonda.
Wycombe report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 30% for Accrington ST, 27% for the draw and 43% for Wycombe. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 29%, 27% and 44%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Accrington ST 1.29, Wycombe 1.62, 2.91 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Kick-off forecast in Accrington: 9.6 °C, no rain, wind 7 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Wycombe win (44%, fair odds 2.27); double chance X2 rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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