Plymouth vs Alvechurch prediction
FA Cup · · Home Park, Plymouth
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Plymouth a 81% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Alvechurch 5%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Plymouth 2.76, Alvechurch 0.61.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Plymouth are without M. Mahoney, R. Curtis, T. Bakinson, M. Sorinola.
Alvechurch report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 83% for Plymouth, 11% for the draw and 6% for Alvechurch. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 81%, 13% and 5%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Plymouth 2.76, Alvechurch 0.61, 3.37 in total. Over 2.5 at 65%, both teams to score at 43%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Plymouth win (81%, fair odds 1.23); double chance 1X rises to 95%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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