Oxford United vs Stevenage prediction
FA Cup · · Kassam Stadium, Oxford
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Oxford United a 37% chance of winning, the draw 30% and Stevenage 34%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Oxford United 1.28, Stevenage 1.21.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Oxford United report no significant absences.
Stevenage are without D. Kemp, L. James-Wildin, J. Magennis, L. Freestone.
Team news, Oxford United: Goalkeeper Jamie Cumming is suspended and Michal Helik is doubtful after a knock to his knee.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 36% for Oxford United, 30% for the draw and 34% for Stevenage. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 37%, 30% and 34%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Oxford United 1.28, Stevenage 1.21, 2.49 in total. Over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Oxford United win (37%, fair odds 2.72); double chance 1X rises to 66%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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