Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town prediction
FA Cup · · Proact Stadium, Chesterfield
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Chesterfield a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Yeovil Town 14%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Chesterfield 2.15, Yeovil Town 0.94.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Chesterfield are without D. Markanday, R. Boot, G. McEachran, K. McFadzean.
Yeovil Town report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 66% for Chesterfield, 19% for the draw and 15% for Yeovil Town. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 64%, 21% and 14%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Chesterfield 2.15, Yeovil Town 0.94, 3.09 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Chesterfield: 10.5 °C, no rain, wind 1 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Chesterfield win (64%, fair odds 1.56); double chance 1X rises to 86%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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