Colchester vs Worcester City prediction
FA Cup · · Colchester Community Stadium, Colchester
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Colchester a 73% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Worcester City 9%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Colchester 2.38, Worcester City 0.76.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Colchester are without R. Hunt, H. Anderson.
Worcester City report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 73% for Colchester, 16% for the draw and 10% for Worcester City. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 73%, 18% and 9%.
Expected goals: Colchester 2.38, Worcester City 0.76, 3.14 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 49%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Colchester win (73%, fair odds 1.38); double chance 1X rises to 91%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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