AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool prediction
FA Cup · · Hornchurch Stadium, Hornchurch
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives AFC Hornchurch a 21% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Blackpool 55%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: AFC Hornchurch 1.14, Blackpool 1.96.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
AFC Hornchurch report no significant absences.
Blackpool are without J. Bowler, T. Bloxham, Finley Munroe, L. Clarkson.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 20% for AFC Hornchurch, 23% for the draw and 57% for Blackpool. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 21%, 24% and 55%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: AFC Hornchurch 1.14, Blackpool 1.96, 3.10 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in London: 10.7 °C, no rain, wind 2 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Blackpool win (55%, fair odds 1.81); double chance X2 rises to 79%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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