York vs Northampton prediction
FA Cup · · York`s LNER Community Stadium, York
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives York a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Northampton 23%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: York 1.62, Northampton 1.04.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
York are without J. Grey, A. Newby.
Northampton are without C. Lemonheigh-Evans, J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh, J. Donacien.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 50% for York, 27% for the draw and 24% for Northampton. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 50%, 27% and 23%.
Expected goals: York 1.62, Northampton 1.04, 2.66 in total. Over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a York win (50%, fair odds 2.01); double chance 1X rises to 77%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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