Harrogate Town vs AFC Fylde prediction
FA Cup · · CNG Stadium, Harrogate
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Harrogate Town a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AFC Fylde 27%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Harrogate Town 1.90, AFC Fylde 1.40.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Harrogate Town report no significant absences.
AFC Fylde report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 48% for Harrogate Town, 24% for the draw and 27% for AFC Fylde. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 48%, 24% and 27%.
Expected goals: Harrogate Town 1.90, AFC Fylde 1.40, 3.30 in total. Over 2.5 at 64%, both teams to score at 65%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Harrogate Town win (48%, fair odds 2.07); double chance 1X rises to 73%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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