Altrincham vs Notts County prediction
FA Cup · · Moss Lane, Altrincham
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Altrincham a 21% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Notts County 54%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Altrincham 1.07, Notts County 1.81.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Altrincham report no significant absences.
Notts County are without J. Belshaw, D. Lipsiuc, O. Cooper, J. Evans.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 20% for Altrincham, 25% for the draw and 55% for Notts County. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 21%, 25% and 54%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Altrincham 1.07, Notts County 1.81, 2.88 in total. Over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Kick-off forecast in Altrincham: 8.4 °C, no rain, wind 5 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Notts County win (54%, fair odds 1.86); double chance X2 rises to 79%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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