Leyton Orient vs Harborough Town prediction
FA Cup · · Matchroom Stadium, London
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Leyton Orient a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Harborough Town 12%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Leyton Orient 2.31, Harborough Town 0.89.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Leyton Orient are without J. Olowu, W. Forrester, I. Hayden, Y. Akhamrich.
Harborough Town report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 71% for Leyton Orient, 17% for the draw and 12% for Harborough Town. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 68%, 20% and 12%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Leyton Orient 2.31, Harborough Town 0.89, 3.20 in total. Over 2.5 at 62%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in London: 10.7 °C, no rain, wind 2 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Leyton Orient win (68%, fair odds 1.46); double chance 1X rises to 88%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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