Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds prediction
FA Cup · · Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Burton Albion a 89% chance of winning, the draw 9% and AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2%. The most likely result is 3-0. Expected goals: Burton Albion 3.18, AFC Rushden & Diamonds 0.45.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Burton Albion are without J. Armer, F. Delap, Sulyman Krubally, G. Evans.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 90% for Burton Albion, 8% for the draw and 3% for AFC Rushden & Diamonds. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 89%, 9% and 2%.
Expected goals: Burton Albion 3.18, AFC Rushden & Diamonds 0.45, 3.63 in total. Over 2.5 at 70%, both teams to score at 35%; the most likely score is 3-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Burton-upon-Trent: 9.7 °C, no rain, wind 5 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Burton Albion win (89%, fair odds 1.12); double chance 1X rises to 98%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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