Newport County vs Walsall prediction
FA Cup · · Rodney Parade, Newport
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Newport County a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Walsall 36%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Newport County 1.38, Walsall 1.39.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Newport County are without K. Cameron, S. Gwengwe, M. Dibley-Dias, Joe Thomas.
Walsall are without J. Connolly, R. Smith, Isaac Moore, Taione Richard Evumena Sodje.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 36% for Newport County, 27% for the draw and 37% for Walsall. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 36%, 28% and 36%.
Expected goals: Newport County 1.38, Walsall 1.39, 2.77 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Walsall win (36%, fair odds 2.75); double chance X2 rises to 64%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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