Crewe vs AFC Wimbledon prediction
FA Cup · · Alexandra Stadium, Crewe
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Crewe a 42% chance of winning, the draw 29% and AFC Wimbledon 29%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Crewe 1.44, AFC Wimbledon 1.15.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Crewe report no significant absences.
AFC Wimbledon are without C. Maycock, D. Sweeney.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 42% for Crewe, 29% for the draw and 29% for AFC Wimbledon. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 42%, 29% and 29%.
Expected goals: Crewe 1.44, AFC Wimbledon 1.15, 2.59 in total. Over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Crewe win (42%, fair odds 2.35); double chance 1X rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram