Guiseley AFC vs Sutton Utd prediction
FA Cup · · Nethermoor Park, Guiseley
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Guiseley AFC a 30% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Sutton Utd 42%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Guiseley AFC 1.24, Sutton Utd 1.50.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Guiseley AFC report no significant absences.
Sutton Utd report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 31% for Guiseley AFC, 27% for the draw and 42% for Sutton Utd. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 30%, 28% and 42%.
Expected goals: Guiseley AFC 1.24, Sutton Utd 1.50, 2.74 in total. Over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Sutton Utd win (42%, fair odds 2.38); double chance X2 rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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