Peterborough vs Reading prediction
FA Cup · · ABAX Stadium, Peterborough
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Peterborough a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Reading 40%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Peterborough 1.48, Reading 1.60.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Peterborough are without L. Kelly, C. Johnston, O. Edwards, Joshua Feeney.
Reading are without L. Wing, P. Lane, Benn David Ward, J. Dorsett.
Team news, Reading: Reading without George Earthy, Benn Ward and Paddy Lane due to injury; Jack Marriott probably rested after his recent return.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 33% for Peterborough, 26% for the draw and 40% for Reading. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 34%, 26% and 40%.
Expected goals: Peterborough 1.48, Reading 1.60, 3.08 in total. Over 2.5 at 59%, both teams to score at 63%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 5.7 (over 9.5 at 8%). Expected yellow cards: 2.1 (over 3.5 at 17%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Reading win (40%, fair odds 2.52); double chance X2 rises to 66%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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