Carlisle vs Salford City prediction
FA Cup · · Brunton Park, Carlisle
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Carlisle a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Salford City 33%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Carlisle 1.67, Salford City 1.47.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Carlisle report no significant absences.
Salford City are without W. Norris, W. Aimson, M. Langstaff, L. Molyneux.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 39% for Carlisle, 25% for the draw and 36% for Salford City. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 41%, 26% and 33%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Carlisle 1.67, Salford City 1.47, 3.14 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 64%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Carlisle win (41%, fair odds 2.42); double chance 1X rises to 67%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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