Salisbury vs Sholing prediction
FA Cup · · Raymond McEnhill Stadium, Salisbury
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Salisbury a 70% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Sholing 11%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Salisbury 2.24, Sholing 0.78.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Salisbury report no significant absences.
Sholing report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 70% for Salisbury, 18% for the draw and 12% for Sholing. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 70%, 20% and 11%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Salisbury 2.24, Sholing 0.78, 3.02 in total. Over 2.5 at 58%, both teams to score at 49%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Salisbury: 13.5 °C, no rain, wind 19 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Salisbury win (70%, fair odds 1.44); double chance 1X rises to 89%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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