Port Vale vs Scunthorpe prediction
FA Cup · · Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Port Vale a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Scunthorpe 15%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Port Vale 2.01, Scunthorpe 0.88.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Absences and team news
Port Vale are without K. Dempsey, O. Lynch, B. Garrity.
Scunthorpe report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 64% for Port Vale, 22% for the draw and 14% for Scunthorpe. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 63%, 23% and 15%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Port Vale 2.01, Scunthorpe 0.88, 2.88 in total. Over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 2-0.
Kick-off forecast in Stoke-on-Trent: 9.9 °C, no rain, wind 3 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Port Vale win (63%, fair odds 1.59); double chance 1X rises to 85%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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